Writing
Mostly about how fast AI is improving and what the trend lines imply if you take them literally. Published on Read the OOM and LessWrong.
Featured
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The Takeoff Speeds Model Predicts We May Be Entering Crunch Time
Running Tom Davidson's takeoff speeds model forward on current inputs, and asking what the answer means for how much time is actually left on the clock.
Substack: Read the OOM
LessWrong
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METR Time Horizons: Now 10x/Year
The task-length horizon METR measures has been roughly tripling each year. The recent data looks faster than that — closer to an order of magnitude a year.
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Pascal's Mugging: The Word Wars
On tiny probabilities, enormous stakes, and the arguments people build on top of them.
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On AI and Compute
An early look at the compute-scaling trend and what it does and doesn't tell you about progress.